[themanwiththeknow]

looking to make 50 pts profit from now until xmas, backing everything at £10 a pt and hopefully make myself £500

liverpool to beat fulham by 1 goal @ 3.75

rangers to beat aberdeen by 1 goal @ 3.60 (2 x 1pt single, 1/2pt double)


after the most ridiculous refereeing decisions and an insane amount of luck liverpool find themselves 2nd in the table behind chelsea on g/d.

they have a solid home record with 5 wins and a draw from 6 home games (16pts from 18) fulham on the other hand have a dreadful away record with 4 losses and a draw from 5 away games (1pt from 15) so a home win looks on cards to day but @ 1/4 i wouldnt back that with you're money let alone my own so have to find the value

4 of liverpools 5 home wins (80%) were won by a single goal with their 3-0 over lowly west brom last week being thefirst time they have won by more than 1 goal and 7 of their 10 wins home and away (70%) were by a single goal.

fulham have lost 5 league games this season and all 5 (100%) were by a single goal. fulham have also came into abit of form recently with 3 wins in last 4 games and their only defeat in the last 6 games was an 88th min saha goal at goodison park so maybe not the walk in the park the 1/4 suggest on a home win and liverpool to sneak a 1 goal victory is good value @ 11/4


rangers have the same home record as liverpool with 5 wins and a draw from 6 home games (16pts from 18). aberdeen have been up and down away from home with 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses and another home win looks on the cards but again @ 1/3 there is no value whatsoever and it has to be found elsewhere

rangers have conceded in 4 of their 6 home games and aberdeen have scored in all 7 of their away games and have scored in 5 of their last 6 meetings vs rangers so i think aberdeen will score today so for rangers to win by more than one goal they would have to score at least 3 goals which is something only celtic have done to aberdeen this season

3 of rangers 5 home wins (60%) were by a single goal and 5 of aberdeens 6 defeats this season (83%) were by a single goal and rangers to win by a single goal @ 3.60 looks decent value with 2-1 @ 7/1 looking tasty, also if lightening can strike twice and aberdeen again concede 3 goals to the old firm 3-2 @ 28/1 appeals


burnley to beat doncaster @ 1.61
dundee utd to beat hamilton @ 1.53 (3pts double)


since burnley lost their opening home game 0-3 to ipswich they are unbeaten in 7 home games in the league with 5 wins and 2 draws (17pts from 21) and have only conceded 4 goals in those 7 games.

doncaster are the complete opposite and they won their opening away game 0-1 to derby and since then have LOST ALL 7 AWAY GAMES conceding 4 times as many they have scored after scoring 4 and conceding 16!

all good runs must come to end and burnleys good form will stop but it is more likely to end next time out vs derby or the time after that to cardiff than it is today vs doncaster.


dundee utd had a poor start to the season (played welll without results) and took them until their 6th game to get a win, since getting that win they have been in good form. they have won their last 5 home games scoring 11 and only conceding 2 goals. they lost last week away to kilmarnock which was their 1st defeat in 9 games. but should get back to winning ways today

hamilton are rock bottom of the league and have lost 5 of their 7 away games winning the other 2 (vs ICT and aberdeen) they have only scored 4 away goals all season and away to a team who have only conceded 2 home goals in 5 matches i think they will find it tough today. hamilton are in awful form and have lost 8 of their last 9 league games with their only pt in 9 games coming in a 1-1 draw at home with falkirk. they played out of their skin last week vs celtic and played the champions with 10 men for 55 mins and only lost to an 87th minute.

dundee utds impressive winning streak at home will have to come to end at some point but it is more likely that run will end in their next home game when they take on rangers rather than today vs hamilton and hamilton could be looking at their 9th defeat in 10 games


b leverkusen to beat a bielfeld @ 1.70 (add to above 2 in 1pt treble)


top vs bottom this afternoon in the bundesliga and cant see anything other than an away win

leverkusen have been good away from home this season winning 5 of their 6 away games. they are unbeaten in 6 league games and only 1 defeat in last 9. bielfeld have only won 1 game all season (played 13) and have picked up 5 home pts from 18. with the form of the 2 teams cant see past leverkusen ending the day with another 3pts

leverkusen have won 9 league games so far and 7 of those games were by 2 goals or more, bielfeld have lost 6 games with 5 of the 6 being by 2 goals or more. leverkusen to win by 2 goals or more @ 3.00 appeals


villa/man utd over 2.5 goals @ 1.85
watford/qpr over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 (2pts double)