Decision's -Push -Call -Pass ?

[bennythedip2]

Recently played in a live 60 Euro Freezeout. The player (lets call him Joe) got to the final table and with six players left (on the BUBBLE), the blinds were starting to get steep. At 4k/8k he had 70k while others had 35k.

The player first to act makes it three times the BB and it is folded around to (Joe) in the SB with PK 10's. The player was loose but had tightened up towards the end. He (Joe) had him covered by 6k and when he asked him how much he'd left, he seemed flustered.

Joe moved in on him and he reluctantly called with Jacks!! Anyway, they held and Joe bubbled, but my question is how do you play a big pair towards the end of a tournament ?
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This is a quandary, an enigma as old as the game of poker itself. Unfortunately, just like asking Mistress Jacqueline where she was last night, the answer only leads to more questions.

I could say you should play all big pairs aggressively and push all-in every chance you get. But what if you are in the big blind with QQ and there are three players all-in before you? What if you are under the gun with KK and you raise 3xBB and there is a raise, a re raise and a re raise all-in after you? Surely there is a case to be made for looking in her handbag and checking the last dialed numbers on her… ahem, sorry, I’m getting carried away.

The point I am making is that all decision making in poker is dependent on the specific situation at hand. However, as a general guideline you should play your big pairs very aggressively when at the final table of a tournament. Only when you start to encounter strong resistance from your opposition should you re-evaluate your strategy.

There are a number of things to consider at a final table beyond the hand that is in progress. Firstly you have to be clear about your ambitions in the tournament. Do you want to merely fold your way into a decent money finish, or are you prepared to risk a small money finish in order to take a chance at winning the tournament?

Secondly, you must be keenly aware of the size of the chip stacks of the players at your table. If players that act after you are short stacked you must be prepared to commit to any hand you raise with. For example if you hold 72 and you raise 3xBB and the player after you goes all-in for 4.5xBB you are now committed to calling as the pot odds are inescapable (eg if the blinds are 500/1000 and you raise to 3k. If the player goes all-in for 4k you only have to call 1k to win a pot of 8.5k. You are getting 8.5/1 on your money and even against AA you are at most a 7-1 underdog so you have to call).


With this in mind you must choose the hands you play very carefully. I am not adverse to the occasional bluff when you are in position – you can’t wait for cards all your life or you will be blinded away – but you should only do this when the circumstances allow.

Looking at your letter, one thing I would say is that pocket 10s are not a “big pair”. I would classify “big pairs” as AA, KK and QQ. Cheeky Jacks like myself are tricky little buggers to play with and I would not include them with the other big pairs as there are two many combinations of over-cards that are a coin-flip against them.

This is even more evident with pocket 10s. With 10s you are 50/50 against QJ off suit and you are only a 70% favourite against rubbish hands like J2 (generally one over card will give your opponent a 30% chance against your pair preflop, eg A2 has a 30% chance of winning against KK).


In the scenario you describe a player raised 24k from under the gun leaving only 40k remaining in his stack. When you look down at your pocket 10s you have to take your time to carefully consider the question- what does he have?

Most of the other players at the table have around 35k so by raising to 24k he is committing himself to an all-in move from most of the players at the table.

With this in mind, he is probably not going to risk his tournament with a small pair with five players to act behind him. So you can discount pocket pairs from 22-66.

That leaves only three pairs that you can beat 77,88 and 99 and four pairs that you cannot JJ, QQ, KK, AA. So on average you are going to lose against a pair.

The only other hands he could be playing are two high cards. Again, because of his position and the stacks of those left to act you cannot put him on any other high cards than AK or, at a stretch, AQ suited. Against these hands it is a coin flip and you will lose half the time.

So on average, against all the hands he may hold you are going to going to lose the majority of the time. This is where your ambitions come in to play. If you wish to fold into the money then this is an easy lay-down. However, if you want to win the tournament winning this pot may be the key. On the other hand if you fold there may be a more clear-cut opportunity for you to win a big pot just around the corner.

There is no right or wrong answer here, and six handed I think most players in your position would have either called the bet or pushed all-in. The main point I would like to make is that having a pocket pair at a final table is not an automatic all-in.

You have to think about each hand carefully and make decisions based on the position and stacks of the other players at the table and how they have acted in the past (is it an aggressive or passive player who has made the raise?).

A final thought as I riffle through Jacqueline’s drawers, never be timid or players will walk all over you, but always be aware of the size of your stack should you fold a hand. In the situation you describe you had twice the chip average and would still have been in a good position if you had laid down the 10s. Food for thought.


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