Ok..here is my analysis of the US Open and betting propositions that i'll be placing my hard earned pennies on....
Its great to see Tiger back in action - ok he's never truly a betting proposition but just to watch the greatest golfer to ever play the game is worth it alone. However, I cannot escape from the fact that as awesome a talent and a true sporting great in every sense of the word as he is, I cannot see him winning the US Open. He cannot be fully fit and when you are playing a total monster of a course against a high class field that have prepared properly for the event in what are looking very difficult circumstances (damp and blustery is the early outlook) its no surprise to see him on the drift. Yes, an 80% Tiger is normally better than golfers at 100%, but his first tournament back after a third operation on the same knee on a 7600 yard course playing at its longest? Not for me.
So, maybe for once truly, we can look to find the winner and not just place value.
You have to acknowledge Phil Mickleson here. Its his home course - and whilst they normally use Torrey Pines early on in the US Tour calendar, only Phil will know how it plays in mid June. He has been in pretty good form also in the year to date and can point to several close calls in the US Open - surely this is his best chance to win it. It is not ideal that he has been paired with Tiger Woods in the first two rounds - but if he can keep himself in the hunt then his knowledge and experience round the course can prove vital and pick himself his first US Open trophy. His stats in the year to date shine through also - 7/1 on Bet365 dont get your pulse racing, but its good enough for me.
With the course extremely long, you will obviously be wanting a big hitter on your side and for this reason my second selection will be Camilio Villegas. The Colombian thumps the ball miles and although comparably inexperienced in Majors, has been in good form on the US Tour so far this season, especially in West Coast events, and finished 5th in his first US Open last year. Villegas is also handy with the putter - having over a 30% birdie conversion rate (very good that) and being high on the stat list of putts per round for GIR's, where he is in the top 60. Trading at 110/1 on Bet 365 he seems to me to be a tremendous e/w pick - i wouldnt be surprised if he his higher elsewhere. 1/4 the odds on top 5 thats over 25/1 a place which to me screams value.
I also like Stuart Appleby at 90/1 and Boo Weekley at 55/1 - Appleby is very much a nearly man in Majors but has the consistent game to put himself right in the mix IF he can minimise the damage he normally does to himself with the one bad round (normally rounds 3 or 4) he puts himself through, whilst Weekley has again been very consistent on the US Tour so far this season - placing himself well in the driving accuracy and greens in regulation stat category.
Im resisting the urge to tip Sergio - he's in fine form but I dont think this course will suit, and also could make a good case for Robert Allenby and Justin Leonard as good e/w alternatives, but overall I will be plumping for :
Mickleson 4 pts Win @ 7/1
Villegas 1 pt E/W @ 110/1
Appleby 1 pt E/W @ 90/1
Weekley 1 pt E/W @ 55/1
Odds quoted just Bet365 - not necessarily those best on offer around!
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