The US Open Golf...Forum selections

Tony2005 · #1 June 8th, 2008, 07:39

After a good run in the masters and finding the winner (Garcia) of the USPGA this week we have another major The US Open.
This major is by far the hardest to win as the courses picked to play this on are always the toughest around.

So all you golf lovers start studying and get your selections posted by Wednesday night so we can have a little dabble in the golf markets..

bennythedip2 · #2 June 8th, 2008, 12:06

Tiger

TheShark72 · #3 June 9th, 2008, 09:15

Will be making my selections and posting my thoughts in next day or two....soooooooooooo cant wait to be watching it!!!

Tonga · #4 June 9th, 2008, 12:04

Tiger for me

Tony2005 · #5 June 9th, 2008, 13:37

over the last few weeks and although hes always going to be the one to beat when he tees it up i think theres some better value to be had...

The US Open has thrown up a few surprise winners over the last 15 years and maybe another on the cards this year.....

I will be having a study of what i think could be value bets for this years and will post them on Wednesday..

TheShark72 · #6 June 11th, 2008, 10:46

Ok..here is my analysis of the US Open and betting propositions that i'll be placing my hard earned pennies on....

Its great to see Tiger back in action - ok he's never truly a betting proposition but just to watch the greatest golfer to ever play the game is worth it alone. However, I cannot escape from the fact that as awesome a talent and a true sporting great in every sense of the word as he is, I cannot see him winning the US Open. He cannot be fully fit and when you are playing a total monster of a course against a high class field that have prepared properly for the event in what are looking very difficult circumstances (damp and blustery is the early outlook) its no surprise to see him on the drift. Yes, an 80% Tiger is normally better than golfers at 100%, but his first tournament back after a third operation on the same knee on a 7600 yard course playing at its longest? Not for me.

So, maybe for once truly, we can look to find the winner and not just place value.

You have to acknowledge Phil Mickleson here. Its his home course - and whilst they normally use Torrey Pines early on in the US Tour calendar, only Phil will know how it plays in mid June. He has been in pretty good form also in the year to date and can point to several close calls in the US Open - surely this is his best chance to win it. It is not ideal that he has been paired with Tiger Woods in the first two rounds - but if he can keep himself in the hunt then his knowledge and experience round the course can prove vital and pick himself his first US Open trophy. His stats in the year to date shine through also - 7/1 on Bet365 dont get your pulse racing, but its good enough for me.

With the course extremely long, you will obviously be wanting a big hitter on your side and for this reason my second selection will be Camilio Villegas. The Colombian thumps the ball miles and although comparably inexperienced in Majors, has been in good form on the US Tour so far this season, especially in West Coast events, and finished 5th in his first US Open last year. Villegas is also handy with the putter - having over a 30% birdie conversion rate (very good that) and being high on the stat list of putts per round for GIR's, where he is in the top 60. Trading at 110/1 on Bet 365 he seems to me to be a tremendous e/w pick - i wouldnt be surprised if he his higher elsewhere. 1/4 the odds on top 5 thats over 25/1 a place which to me screams value.

I also like Stuart Appleby at 90/1 and Boo Weekley at 55/1 - Appleby is very much a nearly man in Majors but has the consistent game to put himself right in the mix IF he can minimise the damage he normally does to himself with the one bad round (normally rounds 3 or 4) he puts himself through, whilst Weekley has again been very consistent on the US Tour so far this season - placing himself well in the driving accuracy and greens in regulation stat category.

Im resisting the urge to tip Sergio - he's in fine form but I dont think this course will suit, and also could make a good case for Robert Allenby and Justin Leonard as good e/w alternatives, but overall I will be plumping for :

Mickleson 4 pts Win @ 7/1
Villegas 1 pt E/W @ 110/1
Appleby 1 pt E/W @ 90/1
Weekley 1 pt E/W @ 55/1

Odds quoted just Bet365 - not necessarily those best on offer around!

Tony2005 · #7 June 11th, 2008, 11:40

Tomorrow sees the start of THE US OPEN Golf Championships this year being played at Torry Pines in California.

Hailed as the most difficult major to win the last three years has given us winners priced at 150/1-200/1 and 100/1 so that goes to prove that anyone can win this and a lot depends on if its your week or not...

This years venue is one the players play every year on the USPGA tour as it hosts The Buick Invertational so maybe the longer priced players will not be as effective here as in previous years...

This is a long course over 7600 yards so long and straight hitters have the advantage, the short games will be well tested as the greens will firm up over the last two days making it very hard to stop the ball on approach shots so the further away you are the more difficult it will be to get your ball close...Putting will become vertually impossible and im sure a few players will be made to look rather silly at some time or another. Great viewing for us golf fans..

Anyway on to the players i think can give us a run for our money and will be in the mix come Sunday evening...

TIGER WOODS..(7/2..WH/PP/BF) Not the most original tip and although hes has to be the greatest golfer ever... not a player i back normally but at the price ofered i think we would all be stupid not to get on....Tiger has won SIX times on this course including the last 4 Buicks and of course he has already won here this year by 8 SHOTS from a very strong field.
If he plays anywhere near that form this could be all over with 2 rounds to play.

PAT PEREZ..(150/1 LAD)..I know what your thinking....WHO the hell is he...well not one of the bigger names on the tour but he has an advantage over most of the field here at Torry Pines..This is the course he played as a junior and was brought up here winning the 1993 Junior world championship here beating none other then Tiger Woods and his caddie has also won amateur competitions on this course so i think he could be a big price for an E/W finish.

PADRIIG HARRINGTON..(25/1 LAD) A player who always seems to be there ao there abouts come Sunday in the majors. He is a player who never gives up and thats the sort we want in this tough event. Has never played the course before so that might be a slight disadvantage but im prepared to take the chance on a good showing ny the British Open Winner.

EARNIE ELS..(50/1 PP/BF) Not been in great form for the past 18 months but at these odds must be backed E/W. A player who knows how to win majors and if he starts well i think could suprise here and take the title.

JB HOLMES..(150/1 GENERAL) A player who is on the way up the golfing ranks and although can sometimes be a little erratic can be backed E/W here. A big hitter and with a fairly decent short game has all the attributes to play well this year.

(ABBV)..LAD..ladbrokes../ BF.. betfred../ PP..paddy power..WH../ william hills.

Well guys those are my fancies and hopefully you will post yours and im sure together we can get a few players in the money this year.[/

themanwiththeknow · #8 June 11th, 2008, 11:42

placed a few bets on people on the daq and will be looking to lay off after first couple of rounds for get some free bets

backed................

vijay singh @ 36.00 for £15.00

kj choi @ 98.00 for £5.00

retief goosen @ 54.00 for £5.00

ernie els @ 54.00 for £5.00

boo weekly @ 74.00 for £5.00

steve stricker @ 134.00 £2.00

edit.........just stuck £15.00 on garcia @ 21.00

Tony2005 · #9 June 11th, 2008, 11:52

I started writing this early this morning and didnt read The Sharks thoughts until i had posted.....but we both are of the same opinions on the course etc....even though a little apart on selections.

A great write up Mark

and i think you have made a few very valied points with your selections although i still think TIGER is great value even coming back from injury.

I too have to agree with your thoughts on GARCIA a player we won money on at the PGA ....i really dont think his putting will hold up over four rounds on this course.

I will be staking a few quid on your selections too as i think there is some value to be had with them as well as mine....

Good luck to everyone having a punt........

Tony2005 · #10 June 11th, 2008, 11:55

Im glad someone agrees with me about ERNIE ELS.....value bet at those odds..

Somemore very good selections and i will be amazed if we havnt found the winner out of the players selected....