goal line betting

[themanwiththeknow]

a thread as requestd by benny and tony.............hi guys, how u doing?

it was a few months ago that i really started to look at making serious money from football and was having too many swings just betting on teams to win, as im sure ur well aware of, there is plenty of matches that just dont go the way they should and are normally very poor odds.

1000,s upon 1000,s of coupons were ruined yesterday with man utd losing,

1000,s were lost when m,boro beat arsenal and reading beat liverpool, there is just too many swings and poor odds to consistantly make good money

win, lose or draw there is no guarentees in football, any of the 3 results can happen, so i started to think about what is guarenteed in football??

one thing that has always been and always will happen in football is GOALS!!!

obviously there will be occassional 0-0 draws, but in general, football matches bring goals, so what better way to make cash than to bet on goals!

the bet i use is called the goal line bet, 90% of the time the goal line is set at 2.5 goals and ull get ur odds for the game being over 2.5 goals (i.e 3 or more goals) or under 2.5 goals (i.e 2 goals or less)

these markets are widely available on betdaq and ladbrokes (betfair do it also) but i only use ladbrokes or betdaq

prices for goaline bets are between 4/5 (1.80) and 11/10 (2.10), so decent enough prices

90% of my bets on the goal markets are for the OVERS, i like to find a game that will be 3 or more goals (so teams with poor defences or 2 teams that like attacking football)

i very rarly do the unders because it only takes a dodgy penalty or a red card to open the floodgates and the goals poor in, but i use them sometimes like on man city vs liverpool today, (game had unders written all over it), but the majority is the OVERS.

it doesnt take much to make it work for u, just a little bit of homework on previous results and ull find some selections

before yesterday tottenham had played 9 home games in the premier league and ALL 9 GAMES were over 2.5 goals, reading had played 9 away games to date and 6 out those 9 were OVER 2.5 GOALS so between totts home games and readings away games thats 15 out of 18 games that were over 2.5 goals (3 or more goals) so the overs was ALMOST GUARENTEED, as im sure ull know the totts v reading game finished 6-4 so that is now all 10 home games for spurs finished in the overs (odds were 1.84)

before motherwells home game with dundee utd yesterday, motherwell had played 9 home games and dundee utd 9 away games and out of those 18 games 14 were over 2.5 goals, so stats say that this game will be over 2.5 goals, and what was the score?..........5-3 to motherwell (overs were 1.90)

so these were 2 games that were alomost certainly going to have 3 goals or more (motherwell game had 3 goals after 21 minutes) and the double paid odds of 3.49 (5/2)

ladbrokes do goal line betting on all matches in all 4 english leagues and the SPL, (they also do conference aswell but i rarly bother)

so thats 52 games to choose from and u only need 2 or 3 results to get a nice return,

there was 49 games yesterday in which 19 finished in the unders (2 goals or less) and 30 finished in the overs (3 goals or more), it really isnt that hard to find 2 or 3 games that will have 3 or more goals out of 52 matches, yesterdays results swayed towards the overs, but normally its pretty 50/50, half the games will finish in the unders and the other half will be overs

so there is roughly 26 games that have 3 or more goals each week and u only have to find 2 or 3 out of those games

minimum odds ull take is 4/5 so a double will pay a minimum of 3.25, at first glance this doesnt seem to great, but what i am finding that works is starting with £50 and trying to hit 3 consectutive doubles

£50 on a double will return a minimum of £162.50, then u put that £162.50 on another double and ur returns will be £528, then u put that on another double and u get returns of £1716

now uve turned ur £50 into £1700 in 3 doubles, or after ur second double comes in, u can take out ur £50 u started with and bet the rest, and if it doesnt come in then u still have the £50 u started with and can start again

ur only aim here is trying to get 3 doubles in a row, i had a double come in yesterday and a double come in today so im only 1 double away from turning £50 into a MINIMUM OF £1700

there is 41 matches on news years day, all u have to do is find 2 games out these 41 matches for a double, there is 10 matches on wednesday, maybe be able to sniff out a double here, then there is a full programme of league and fa cup football on saturday (50 odd games), if u can sniff out a double here, then u can potentially put a £50 bet on news years day and come saturday night (3 doubles later) u could be sitting with about £2000

obviously ur not going to win every single time u bet, games that have goals galore written all over them sometimes end up 0-0 borefests, but like i said a little homework on results can go a long way

last friday night i look at all the previous results for the teams playing on saturday and wrote down all the stats and see what stood out

these are what stood out!!................

15 out of 18 games between spurs at home and reading away were the overs, 14 out of 18 of motherwells home games and dundee utds away games were the overs, 16 out of 21 of oldhams home games and walsalls away games finished in the unders, and 17 out of 24 of leicestrs home games and charltons away games were unders

so according to these stats spurs vs reading should have been over 2.5 goals (it was it finished 6-4), motherwell vs dundee utd should have been the overs (it was it finished 5-3) oldham vs walsall should have finished unders (it did it was 0-2) and leicester vs charlton should have finished in the unders (it did, it was 1-1)

these 4 standout selections all went the way the stats said they should and would have paid 13.24 with ladbrokes (wish i was on )

there is 41 games on news years day and i have all unders and overs results for every team playing in those 41 games in my writing book

go to ladbrokes and click on football, on the left hand side under featured events, click on goal line coupon, and the whole selection of unders and overs prices will be there,

ladbrokes havent priced up all games yet, but there is some there

they should all be priced up by tomorrow night, go and have a look and maybe stick a few pennies on a double or treble for new years day and see how u get on,

ive spoke about goal markets on another forum and a guy i know there read it and put a £2 bet on a treble, it came in and he put his winnings on another treble, that one came in also and then he did a double, that also came in and within 2 weeks he had turned his £2 into about £270

i know ive rambled on here and ur probably bored reading, but if u have any questions dont hesitate to ask

take it easy guys and good luck

[bennythedip2]

Manintheknow, great post , many thanks
I like the part about staking plan. A dear old mate of mine(god rest his soul) played blackjack with that staking plan (3x double ups), and yes he won more often than not.

Yes i'll be following you and this system as of the new year
glk benny

[bally73]

me too great post and your right it makes perfect sense well done manintheknow
might just follow your tips for new years day though just so i get it right
Lee

[themanwiththeknow]

i agree, staking plans are definatly essential, i helped a friend of mine build up his bankroll starting with the triple up 3 times system,

start with £100 and u aim to triple ur money 3 times, he lost his first £100 in his first attempt, then in his next bet his double came in giving him his first triple up, then the next one came in, he took out his £200 he had used already and bet the rest which lost, so after 4 bets he was break even

he stuck with it and he bet £100 on a double which came in, then his next one lost putting him £100 at a loss, he continued as he knew it wasnt poor judgement, just a couple of unlucky results, his nxt 3 doubles all came in and he turned his 2nd £100 into £3050, and this gave him the bankroll to bet on his football doubles

he went from £10 a week betting on 6 and 7 team accas and getting nowhere(u need alot of teams to get a decent return with low stakes) and now he bets £250 doubles every week and has built his bankroll to over £8000

biggest mistake alot of football punters make is betting small and picking too many selections to increase ur profit, in football betting u need money to make money!!

if ur betting £10 then ur going to need a 6 or 7 team acca to make any decent return, and lets be honest there isnt anyone on the planet who can pick 6 or 7 winners consistantly week in week out (there always one that doesnt come in) the money is in singles, doubles and the occasional treble

i always bet doubles (have the occasional treble if i think its strong) and my double is ALWAYS A MINIMUM OF 2/1 (if im not tripling my money im not interested) that way i only need to hit one double out of every 3 to break even

my mate who is now betting £250 doubles every week also never takes less than 2/1, and is going very well, hes placed 7 doubles this month (december) and 5 have come in, so 5 times hes made minimum of £500 profit and twice hes lost his stake, so 5x £500 = £2500 take away the £500 hes lost and hes got a minimum of £2000 just from 7 doubles

when u look at the fact there is 67 matches in england/scotland, over 100 matches if u add spain, italy, france and germany, it really isnt that hard to come up with a 2/1 bet

like i said if ur starting out, and want to build up a bankroll u want to start with £50-£100 and look to triple ur money 3 times then u have ur bankroll, then once u have ur bankroll of £1500-£3000 then u can just do £150-£250 doubles every week and watch it grow

it only takes 1 or 2 £250 doubles to come in to really build up the cash

if ur starting from scratch and are looking to build up a big bankroll then it can be a real grind and can sometimes be frustrating because u want it all and u want it now!! trust me i know the feeling

if ur reading this and u dont have £50-£100 to get a bankroll going, u can start with £5-£10, yes it will be alot slower and ull feel like ur getting nowhere, but its not a sprint, ur building for the future, u could start with £10 or £20 build it up slowly using doubles till the end of the season and build up a decent bankroll for the start of next season

i know when i started out with £10 and then on a saturday night when i had £30 i felt like it was just a waste of a day, but i soon realised that with £10 3 doubles later and ur looking at about £300 and if u stick to a plan it soon builds up

as delboy says....................THIS TIME NEXT YEAR!!

[themanwiththeknow]

anyone who is interested in betting on goal line markets, im willing to put up the stats on previous results, ive got them all written down anyway and is no problem to put them up in a thread, if helps any of u in making ur selections then it will be worth it


stats are just there as a guideline for u to use, just because the stats say the game will be under 2.5 goals doesnt mean it will be, u have to use ur own judgement on whether the game will be over or under 2.5 goals

west ham vs man utd, all the stats were leading to unders, the game finished 2-1 and was overs, so u have to make ur own mind up, obviously u want the stats to match up with what u think

for example new years day qpr vs leicester, between qprs home games and leicesters away games this season 18 out of the 24 games have all been under 2.5 goals and 6 out of 24 have been overs

so it has been unders 3x more than it has been overs and the stats are screaming out that the game will be under 2.5 goals, altho in my personal opinion i think the game will be overs, so will just ignore it because the stats dont meet up with my opinion

hope this makes sense

[bally73]

my new years day ones are gonna be
arsenal v's west ham over
man utd v's birmingham over
think this pays 4.32
let me know what you think

[Tony2005]

What a great read and i had to chuckle when you said about doing footie acas the amount of times where i have been let down by one team for a 5 team acca.........

This is a much better bet even though the stake will be higher then what i usually spend on football the rewards will be greater and i could as you said scale the stake down slightly.

I would be gratful if you could post some of your winning bets and also what you fancy over the comming few weeks til we all get the hang of it.

Its great to have people on the forum with knowledge of different betting stratagies and this can onlt enhance all of us on the different ways we can win..

Thanks once again for taking the time to post and good luck for 2008..

[bennythedip2]

another add-on to a great post

I think i saw also on laddies last 6 meetings(scores) with dates of teams last games together ..

[themanwiththeknow]

this is a good tool to have a look at!

if u look in the thread "todays football" ull see that i put that all 5 of the league meetings between barnsley and southampton and the last 6 league meetings between preston and cardiff were all over 2.5 goals

this information i got from ladbrokes in the "head to head" previous meetings bit

just by looking in there, and using my own judgement that there would be goals i hit 3/1 double

[TheCaptain]

Fantastic read, and I am really interested in what you have said.

I have looked at Ladbrokes and forgive my ignorance as I have never done this before, but what does it mean when it says 2.5/3.0?

Also, does 3.0 mean that it is 4 or more, or 2 or less, what happens with a 3?

Thanks for your time and your knowledge.

Lee