Online Advice

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Advice that works, discussing poker online - By Mike Caro

Note (This article first appeared in Card Player magazine).

Two common questions about poker come to mind that require more than a one-word answer. One I’ve been asked under oath while testifying as an expert witness. That question is: Is poker predominantly a game of luck or a game of skill?

It depends. If you only play for a very short time, then your fate will be predominantly determined by luck. Even if you’re a very weak player, you may receive superior cards and win. Even if you’re a superior player, you may receive very weak cards and lose. That’s the truth.

Of course, it’s possible that you can win even more money in that short time, by playing your superior cards correctly. On the other hand, making the sophisticated decisions that will theoretically earn you extra money may backfire. You might earn less than an unknowledgeable player would earn with those same superior cards in that same situation. For instance, you might raise on fourth street in stud, knowing you’re likely to chase at least one player out of the pot, while earning extra money from those who call. A weak player may make a poor decision not to raise. As a result, all players will receive different cards on subsequent streets. This could change the amount of money you win. It could also mean that you will not win at all. The point is, in a short period of poker, luck rules. Skill is a weak force.

But the longer you play, the more luck fades and the more skill predominates. It’s like throwing a baseball toward the clouds. In the short term gravity is overwhelmed by the action. But the longer the ball stays airborne, the more gravity takes hold. That ball is coming down sooner or later.

So that’s what you should tell people when they ask whether poker is predominantly a game of luck or a game of skill. It takes a long answer.

Psychology or technical strategy?

The other common and perplexing question about poker is: Which is more important – psychology or technical strategy? In terms of profit for experienced players, psychology is much more important, because technical strategy is often closely matched. Of course, someone could master additional technical skills – skills based on analysis that researchers, including myself, have made available – and expect to win a great deal of extra money.

Still, after you advance far enough beyond the fundamentals of poker, beyond where you fine-tune your mathematical knowledge and your one-size-fits-all tactics, there remains only psychology to help you advance further. It is entirely possible that a technically expert player who is not savvy about tells, psychology, and manipulation may earn $40 an hour in a big-limit game, while a player who has mastered those elements may win $200 an hour or more. Simply choosing and accurately conveying the right image in a game can be worth $50 an hour in a $75/$150 limit game – sometimes much more.

A couple issues back, I wrote a column using words of only one syllable. At least I tried to. A two-syllable word appeared once. That word was “about.” In fact, it also appeared in the headline above the column, but I don’t know if that counts against me.

Readers prove how it works.

What I said was that most players enter the game with a bias toward calling. They came for the action, and they don’t want to throw hands away. So, if you can give them any excuse to call, they will. I term this the calling reflex. When you hold a strong hand, you can trigger your opponents calling reflex simply by doing anything that will get their attention. Twisting in your seat, brushing your hair, starting to stand up – anything is apt to trigger that reflex and win the call. And, in this case, you don’t have to worry about whether your opponent sees through the ploy, because he’s passing anyway. So, it’s worth a try. It’s a free roll.

Repeating the magic secret.

Once more, when you hold a huge hand and your opponent is about to pass, do something. This will often make that opponent stop and reevaluate. Shuffle around in your chair, splash your chips, say something – anything. At this point you have nothing to lose. It’s a free roll, and it’s worth your effort.

The value of most advice is hard to measure. Often you can only guess. But each time this technique works, you will know for sure that you make extra money. And you can spend it. — MC