Chelsea v Arsenal - Who can win the FA Cup

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Arsenal v Chelsea FA Cup Final = (May 27 2017)

Tactics expert Alex Keble runs the rule over Saturday's FA Cup final between Arsenal and Chelsea in his latest column.(SL)

The 2017 FA Cup final is arguably the most important game of Arsene Wenger's career: defeat to Chelsea would reaffirm Arsenal's status as an inferior team and make this the worst season for the Frenchman since he moved to England. It won’t be easy signing a new contract after defeat at Wembley to your local rivals.

And a big Chelsea win is what most of us expect. Antonio Conte's superb debut season has been defined by military diligence, tactical sophistication, and high intensity; everything that has been missing over the last decade at the Emirates.

Here are five key tactical questions ahead of Saturday’s final:
1) Will Wenger continue with a 3-4-2-1 or revert to 4-2-3-1?


Until last weekend, Arsenal were in a surprisingly strong position ahead of the FA Cup final after Wenger’s belated shift to a 3-4-2-1 restored some clarity to his side’s tactical strategy. But injuries to Shkodran Mustafi and Gabriel Paulista, coupled with Laurent Kolscielny's suspension, has suddenly derailed their preparation.

A combination of luck and weak opposition had made Arsenal’s new formation look better than it was for most of late spring, although in their last two matches things have really started to click. Their usually-inflated gap between the lines of defence and midfield has disappeared, leaving a more compressed, and thus cohesive, overall shape than we have seen at any point in the last five years of Wenger's reign.

Chelsea have increasingly struggled against opponents who mirror their own 3-4-2-1, and indeed it is now widely acknowledged that this is the best system to negate the roaming Eden Hazard and Pedro. However, Wenger will have to play Rob Holding, left-back Nacho Monreal, and the ageing Per Mertesacker in defence if he is to follow suit.

Will Wenger switch back to a simpler formation to stabilise his defence, or is a three-man system still preferable? Mertesacker would benefit from having two faster players supporting him at the back, but then again Monreal and Holding are considerably more experienced, and less error prone, in a flat back four.

The most likely scenario - for a manager who took 20 years to change formation the first time - is to stick with a 3-4-2-1.
2) Can Arsenal’s injury-hit defence cope with the runs of Chelsea’s front three?


Antonio Conte is a very hard-working tactician who will have spent lots of time this week working out how to exploit Arsenal's injuries. Consequently, we can expect Chelsea’s inside forwards to make more runs on the shoulder of the last defender than usual in order to exploit Mertesacker's slowness and/or the huge gaps that will open up between each Arsenal centre-back.

Up against such a disorganised defence, the Chelsea playmakers will spend less time connecting the dots in the number 10 space and instead make out-to-in-to-in runs that focus on receiving threaded through passes.

For this reason, Cesc Fabregas should be selected in central midfield (his through balls will easily cut open the back three) and Pedro must be selected ahead of Willian (the Spaniard is much quicker and enjoys playing on the shoulder).
3) Can Oxlade-Chamberlain & Sanchez hurt Chelsea with clipped balls to the far post?


Chelsea’s biggest vulnerability is crosses from the corner of the penalty area into the far post. They have conceded half a dozen goals this season in crucial matches from this situation, which exploits the inevitable gap between centre-back and wing-back. The crosser is usually free on one side of the area due to Chelsea’s two-man midfield struggling to cover the width.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Alexis Sanchez will bunch up on Arsenal’s right, potentially creating an overload in this zone given Hazard's unwillingness to track back. The sheer tactical diligence of Conte's team means neither will be afforded space in the most dangerous areas, but they will certainly find a yard of room in that crucial corner-of-the-box position.

Olivier Giroud’s ability to peel off to the far post for those clipped crosses could have a crucial impact on this game. However, if Wenger selects Danny Welbeck (who bagged two assists against Stoke City last weekend) ahead of the Frenchman then this avenue of attack will be closed off.
4) Will Moses get the better of Gibbs down Arsenal’s left?


The biggest head-to-head battle on Saturday is between Victor Moses and Kieran Gibbs, who will fill in at left wing-back should Wenger shift Monreal into the centre. Moses has been menacing on the right this season, and on such a large pitch – with both teams utilising narrow attacking lines – there will be space to burst into at Wembley.

Gibbs has only started eight matches this season, largely because the Englishman has never been able to remove those careless mistakes from his game. He is too-easily caught out of position when opponents counter, and though quick, his concentration often dips; Moses should be able to outwit him, leading to chances on the overlap for Chelsea's Nigerian wing-back.
5) Is Ramsey capable of penetrating a Kante-inspired midfield?


The only way Arsenal can get a foothold in this game is if Mesut Ozil and Sanchez consistently get on the ball deep in the Chelsea half. If Wenger’s team are disjointed then the sheer positional resilience of Conte’s side will force both Gunners playmakers out of the game.

When times get tough, Ozil drifts around helplessly and becomes anonymous while Sanchez, his polar opposite, comes shorter and shorter in a desperate attempt to get on the ball. The Chilean is harmless when dropping back to the halfway line.

The only way to prevent this scenario from developing is for Arsenal’s midfield to grab control. Aaron Ramsey must be brave in his passing, looking to pierce through the N'Golo Kante wall with incisive early passes to Ozil and Sanchez. The Wales international is thus their most important player; if he cannot dictate the tempo, then Chelsea will easily suffocate Arsenal’s attacking players and stroll to victory.